Economic Implications of an Ageing Australia

Technical Papers

Fourteen technical papers, consisting of the demographic model and various data, have been published with the research report, Economic Implications of an Ageing Australia, on 12 April 2005.

The papers are:

1 - Demographic projections
2 - Growth curves
3 - Cohort analysis
4 - Total health expenditure
5 - Aggregate studies of age and health expenditures
6 - Health cost decompositions
7 - The prevalence of disability
8 - Non-demographic expenditure pressure
9 - Conveyancing revenue
10 - Gambling revenue
11 - Goods and Services Tax
12 - Household projections
13 - Costs of death and health expenditure
14 - Ageing and child care

Also released with the report were projection models and data used in the preparation of the report.

Technical Paper 1 Demographic projections
1.1 The cohort-component model
1.2 Sources of data and assumptions used for the national projections
1.3 Northern Territory demographic projections

Technical Paper 2 Growth curves
The logistic curve
The Richards curve

Technical Paper 3 Cohort analysis
3.1 Cohort analysis
3.2 Cohort data
3.3 Exits and entries in a cohort model
3.4 Cohort exit and entry rates
3.5 Modelling and projection strategy

Technical Paper 4 Total health expenditure
Current expenditure
Data
Projected expenditure

Technical Paper 5 Aggregate studies of age and health expenditures
The literature
Why is ageing not showing up in the data?
Conclusion

Technical Paper 6 Health cost decompositions
6.1 Decomposition methods

Technical Paper 7 The prevalence of disability
7.1 Measuring disability
7.2 Trends in the prevalence of disability by age
7.3 Disability and labour force status
7.4 Disability Support Pension

Technical Paper 8 Non-demographic expenditure pressure
8.1 Demography is not the only pressure on government spending
8.2 The relative importance of expenditure categories
8.3 Historical expenditure growth patterns
8.4 Non-demographic growth rate assumptions in other studies
8.5 The Commission’s approach

Technical Paper 9 Conveyancing revenue
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Housing stock – the projected number of households
9.3 Housing turnover
9.4 Projections of conveyancing duty receipts
9.5 The effects of ageing on conveyancing duty receipts

Technical Paper 10 Gambling revenue
10.1 Gambling revenue and taxation
10.2 Gambling and age
10.3 Revenue is increasing over time
10.4 Methodology for projections
10.5 Results

Technical Paper 11 Goods and Services Tax

Technical Paper 12 Household projections
References

Technical Paper 13 Costs of death and health expenditure
13.1 Introduction
13.2 The proportion of health costs incurred in the period before death
13.3 Implications of the costs of dying for past health expenditure
13.4 Ageing versus death rates in other countries
13.5 Conclusion
Annex Death rates and ageing in developed countries
References

Technical Paper 14 Ageing and child care
14.1 The nature of child care
14.2 Government expenditure on child care and preschools
14.3 Method for projecting government expenditure
14.4 Projections
14.5 Summing up
References