Historical validation using the Monash Multi Regional Forecasting (MMRF) model

Research project

Background

The Commission has used the MMRF model to quantify the economy-wide and the regional effects of policies in a number of studies, for example, modelling impacts of infrastructure industry change over the 1990s for the Commission’s review of National Competition Policy reform, and modelling the potential benefits of COAG’s National Reform Agenda.

To date, the MMRF model has not been used by the Commission to assess the impacts of demographic and economic policies over time. Access to firmly based dynamic modelling capabilities within the MMRF framework would enable the Commission to undertake such analyses.

Objectives of the study

To validate MMRF model using historical data over period 1993-94 to 2005-06, to provide a firm basis for the development of applied dynamic modelling for assessing, for example, the impacts of demographic change and economic policies over time, using the MMRF model within the Commission.