Recent Trends in Australian Fertility
Staff working paper
This paper by Ralph Lattimore and Clinton Pobke was released on 5 August 2008.
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- Preliminaries (PDF - 51 Kb)
Cover, Copyright, Foreword, Acknowledgments, Contents and Abbreviations & explanations. - Overview (PDF - 43 Kb)
Why has fertility been rising?
Should we be worried by Australia's fertility levels?
Implications - 1 Introduction (PDF - 38 Kb)
- 2 What has been happening recently? (PDF - 132 Kb)
2.1 Trends in births
2.2 Trends in fertility
2.3 Measurement errors in the fertility statistics
2.4 A quantum effect or only the end of postponement?
2.5 Parity data
2.6 Age of mothers
2.7 Changes to age-specific fertility rates
2.8 What do other data on age-specific fertility rates show?
2.9 Longitudinal evidence
2.10 The increase in fertility and the slowing of postponement are not independent - 3 What has caused the increase in fertility? (PDF - 170 Kb)
3.1 Prosperity and fertility
3.2 House prices and rents
3.3 Cost and availability of child care
3.4 The effect of the policy environment on fertility
3.5 Summary of the likely causes of the upturn in fertility - 4 Do we need to be worried by Australian fertility levels? (PDF - 196 Kb)
4.1 Demographic impacts
4.2 The social impacts of low fertility
4.3 Impacts on the economy
4.4 Putting Australia's demographic future into a global context
4.5 Conclusion - Appendix A - Linear interpolation method (PDF - 103 Kb)
- Appendix B - International Fertility Trends (PDF - 17 Kb)
- Appendix C - The impact of income on fertility (PDF - 34 Kb)
- Appendix D - The generosity of family policy (PDF - 79 Kb)
D.1 Direct costs
D.2 The productivity link
D.3 Estimating costs for the missing years
D.4 What does family policy imply for fertility? - Appendix E - International studies of the impacts of family policies on fertility (PDF - 50 Kb)
E.1 Macro-level studies
E.2 Micro-level studies
E.3 Common issues - Appendix F - Has the Baby Bonus changed the patterns of birth by age? (PDF - 26 Kb)
- Appendix G - Fertility intentions (PDF - 66 Kb)
G.1 Are women revising their fertility expectations?
G.2 The issue of mismatch - Appendix H - Tempo effects (PDF - 30 Kb)
- References (PDF - 44 Kb)
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