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Modelling Possible Impacts of GM Crops on Australian Trade

Staff research paper

This paper by Susan Stone, Anna Matysek and Andrew Dolling was released on 8 November 2002. The paper provides an analysis of the economic and trade implications of the introduction of GM technology in the grains, excluding wheat and oilseeds, sectors.

It contains a detailed review of the evidence of the on-farm benefits achieved from the main GM crops commercialised to date. It assesses the consumer and regulatory environments in which GM crops are being introduced, including any associated costs.

As well the paper models, using the general equilibrium model GTAP, the trade implications for Australia, and its main trading partners, of the introduction of GM oilseeds and grains under different domestic and international regulatory and consumer response scenarios.

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The staff research paper, Modelling possible impacts of GM crops on Australian trade, uses the GTAP general equilibrium model of international trade to explicitly consider regulation costs associated with GM technology.

The modelling work shows that, under current market conditions, the introduction of GM technology into the non-wheat grains and oilseeds sectors will have minimum impact on Australia's trade position. However Australia's response to the adoption of GM technology could affect future market opportunities.

Background information

Leonora Nicol (Media, Publications and Web) 02 6240 3239 / 0417 665 443

Cover, Copyright, Contents, Preface, Acknowledgments, Abbreviations, Glossary, Key Points, Overview

1 Introduction
1.1 What are GM crops?
1.2 Current adoption of GM crops
1.3 Aim of this paper
1.4 Structure of the paper

2 Production of GM crops
2.1 Factors affecting supply of GM and non-GM crops
2.2 On-farm benefits and costs from GM crops
2.3 Summary of evidence to date
2.4 Summary of net on-farm benefits

3 Consumer and regulatory frameworks
3.1 Consumer attitudes
3.2 Regulations
3.3 Summary and modelling implications

4 The model and assumptions
4.1 GTAP Model
4.2 Extensions
4.3 Scenarios
4.4 Summary

5 Results
5.1 Productivity simulation
5.2 Regulation
5.4 Policy evolution
5.5 Conclusions

6 Conclusion

A Applications of gene technology in crops

B Field trials approved in Australia

C Consumer surveys

D Regulatory regimes

E Examples of SIP systems