Modelling possible impacts of GM crops on Australian trade
Staff research paper
This paper by Susan Stone, Anna Matysek and Andrew Dolling was released on 8 November 2002. The paper provides an analysis of the economic and trade implications of the introduction of GM technology in the grains, excluding wheat and oilseeds, sectors.
It contains a detailed review of the evidence of the on-farm benefits achieved from the main GM crops commercialised to date. It assesses the consumer and regulatory environments in which GM crops are being introduced, including any associated costs.
As well the paper models, using the general equilibrium model GTAP, the trade implications for Australia, and its main trading partners, of the introduction of GM oilseeds and grains under different domestic and international regulatory and consumer response scenarios.
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The staff research paper, Modelling possible impacts of GM crops on Australian trade, uses the GTAP general equilibrium model of international trade to explicitly consider regulation costs associated with GM technology.
The modelling work shows that, under current market conditions, the introduction of GM technology into the non-wheat grains and oilseeds sectors will have minimum impact on Australia's trade position. However Australia's response to the adoption of GM technology could affect future market opportunities.
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