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Modelling International Developments: GTAP simulations of TCF protection removal

Consultancy report

This report was produced by the Centre for International Economics for the Post-2005 Textile, Clothing and Footwear Assistance Arrangements public inquiry.

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Contents

1 Introduction
This report
Some key results
Key features of the modelling design
Treatment of TCF policies
Other modelling implications

2 Unilateral change of Australia’s TCF tariffs
Unilateral removal of Australia’s TCF tariffs
Unilateral 50% reduction in Australia’s TCF tariffs

3 Unilateral liberalisation of TCF trade in other countries
Unilateral liberalisation of TCF trade in the US
Unilateral removal of TCF tariffs in the EU
Unilateral removal of TCF tariffs in China
A comparison to Australia’s unilateral reform

4 Multilateral and global TCF liberalisation
Removal of TCF protections in Australia and the EU
Removal of TCF protection in Australia and the US
Removal of TCF protection in Australia and Greater China
Removal of TCF protection in the APEC region
Global TCF liberalisation

5 Sensitivity analysis
Changes in parameter groups
Removal of TCF protection when the US protection level is higher
Alternate closure

A Appendix: technical simulation details
Model aggregation
Solution method

References