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The Textile, Clothing and Footwear Sector from 1997 to 2020 and the Effects of Reductions in Assistance

Consultancy report

This consultancy report was produced by the Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University, for the Post-2005 Textile, Clothing and Footwear Assistance Arrangements public inquiry.

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Contents

Summary
The MONASH model
Macro performance and the performance of the TCF sector from 1997 to 2002
Macro forecasts and forecasts for the TCF sector from 2002 to 2020
Policy analysis: the effects of reducing TCF assistance

1 Introduction

2 Macro performance and the performance of the TCF sector from 1997 to 2002

2.1 Macro performance
2.2 TCF performance
 The TCF sector, 1997 to 2002
 Clothing, 1997 to 2002
 Footwear, 1997 to 2002
 Knitting mills, 1997 to 2002
 Textile products, 1997 to 2002
 Textile fibres and yarns, 1997 to 2002
 Leather and leather products, 1997 to 2002

3 Macro forecasts and forecasts for the TCF sector from 2002 to 2020
3.1 Macro forecasts
3.2 Forecasts for the TCF sector
 The TCF sector, 2002 to 2020
 Clothing, 2002 to 2020
 Footwear, 2002 to 2020
 Knitting mills, 2002 to 2020
 Textile products, 2002 to 2020
 Textile fibres and yarns, 2002 to 2020
 Leather and leather products, 2002 to 2020

4 Policy analysis: the effects of reducing TCF assistance
4.1 Shocks and the key assumptions
 Labour market
 Production technologies
 Rates of return on capital
 Public expenditure and taxes
 Export-demand elasticities
4.2 Industry results
 Results for the TCF sector, fixed aggregate employment
 Results for the TCF industries, fixed aggregate employment
 Results for the TCF sector, short-run sticky wages
 Results for other industries, fixed aggregate employment
 Results for other industries, short-run sticky wages
4.3 Regional effects
 Policy simulation 1, fixed aggregate employment
 Policy simulation 2, short-run sticky wages
4.4 Macro effects
 Policy simulation 1, fixed aggregate employment
 Policy simulation 2, short-run sticky wages
4.5 Adjustment costs
 Policy simulation 1, fixed aggregate employment
 Policy simulation 2, short-run sticky wages
4.6 Appendix on export demand elasticities and the specialisation problem

5 Concluding remarks

References