Modelling Asian trade integration
Research paper
Released 01 / 05 / 2024
This paper demonstrates the importance of economic modelling as an input into formulating sound policy. Modelling and quantifying effects allows for a better understanding of the effects of policies across the economy.
The paper uses a model of global trade to understand the effects of reducing tariffs in the context of a variety of trade agreements, concentrating on Asian integration.
Contents
- Preliminaries: Cover, Copyright and publication detail, Contents and Acknowledgments
-
1. Introduction
- 1.1 Modelling approach
- 2. The international trading environment
- 2.1 Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)
- 2.2 Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)
- 2.3 Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF)
- 3. Overview of the modelling scenarios
- 3.1 Updating of the model database
- 3.2 Trade policy scenarios modelled
- 3.3 Modelling environment
- 3.4 Model results
- 4. What if India joins RCEP?
- 4.1 Simulation background
- 4.2 Simulation results
- 5. What if South Asia joins RCEP?
- 5.1 Simulation background
- 5.2 Simulation results
- 6. What if the United Kingdom ratifies the CPTPP?
- 6.1 Simulation background
- 6.2 Simulation results
- 7. What if China joins the CPTPP?
- 7.1 Simulation background
- 7.2 Simulation results
- 8. What if the United States joins the CPTPP?
- 8.1 Simulation background
- 8.2 Simulation results
- 9. What if CPTPP and RCEP were to combine?
- 9.1 Simulation background
- 9.2 Simulation results
- 10. What if IPEF is formed?
- 10.1 Simulation background
- 10.2 Simulation results
- 11. What if Australia removes all its tariffs unilaterally?
- 11.1 Simulation background
- 11.2 Simulation results
- 12. Results summary
- 12.1 Impacts on the joining economies
- 12.2 Impacts on the world economy
- 12.3 Impacts on Australia
- 12.4 Limitations of the modelling
- 12.5 Scope for further work
- A. Overview of the PC Global model and database
- A.1 PC Global model
- A.2 PC Global database
- A.3 Macro closure and solution
- A.4 Other variables and macro indicators
- A.5 Industries and regions in the PC Global database
- Abbreviations
- References
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