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The Impact of Canadian Pork Imports on New South Wales Pigmeat Prices

Consultancy report

This report was produced by G R Griffith, Principal Research Scientist, NSW Agriculture Beef Centre, University of New England. The report is one of two reports commissioned to provide an assessment of the impact of increased imports on the domestic industry.

Contents


1 Introduction

2 Methods of Analysis
2.1 The Granger Model
2.2 The Sims Model
2.3 Causality in VAR Models

3 Data Definitions and Sources

4 Specification Choices
4.1 Lag Lengths
4.2 Prefilters
4.3 Functional Forms
4.4 "All Other Relevant Information"

5 Results of the Granger and Sims Regressions
5.1 Initial Considerations
5.2 Impacts of Canadian Pork Imports on New South Wales Pigmeat Prices, 1990-1998
5.3 Impacts of Canadian Pork Imports on New South Wales Pigmeat Prices, 1993-1998
5.4 Sensitivity to Data Choices

6 VAR Results

7 Conclusions