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Review of Modelling Reports for the Productivity Commission

Consultancy report

This review was produced by Brett Inder, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Monash University. The report is an independent assessment of the consultancy reports:

  • The Impact of Canadian Pork Imports on New South Wales Pigmeat Prices
  • Quantitative Analysis of the Impact of Imports on the Domestic Pig and Pigmeat Industries.

It also reviews econometric analysis presented in submissions.

Contents


1 Introduction

2 Review of ‘The Impact of Canadian Pork Imports on New South Wales Pigmeat Prices’ ,by G.R. Griffith
2.1 Unit Root Tests
2.2 Bivariate Causality Tests
2.3 Multivariate VAR modeling
2.4 Levels Multivariate VAR Causality Testing
2.5 Overall Assessment

3 Review of ‘Quantitative Analysis of the Impact of Imports on the Domestic Pig and Pigmeat Industries’, from the Curtin University of Technology
3.1 Unit Root Tests
3.2 Multivariate VAR / Cointegration Modeling
3.3 Overall Assessment

4 Review of ‘The impact of trade liberalisation and increasing imports on the Australian pig industry’, by T. Purcell and S. Harrison (20 September 1998)
4.1 Stationarity tests (Chapter 6)
4.2 Imports and Producer Prices (Chapter 7)
4.3 Imports and Domestic Production (Chapter 8)
4.4 Imports and Wholesale Prices (Chapter 9)
4.5 Imports and Retail Prices (Chapter 10)
4.6 Granger Causality Tests (Chapter 11)
4.7 Multivariate VAR Analysis (Chapter 12)
4.8 Multivariate VAR Analysis (Chapter 13)
4.9 Other VAR/ECM modeling (Chapters 14 and 15)
4.10 Summary

5 Review of ‘Endogenising structural change and the effect of imports on the Australian pig industry’, by T. Purcell and R. Beard (9 October 1998)

6 Summary