Policy implications of an ageing Australia: An illustrated guide
Chairman's speech
Gary Banks gave a presentation Policy Implications of an ageing Australia: an illustrated guide to the Financial Review Ageing Population Summit, held in Sydney on 27 September 2005.
Download the speech
- Contents
The destiny of our demography: from pyramid to … coffin?
Participation rates decline with age
Labour participation will fall
Economic growth slump ahead
Sources of fiscal pressure (and relief)
Medical costs rise with age
Don’t panic!
Don’t blame the baby boomers
Longevity is the main source of ageing
The historical perspective
But fiscal sustainability must be resolved
Projections are not forecasts: a boulder is lying on a rail track!
Reactive responses
The ‘banana’ republic option
Older people have low incomes…
But the old have significant wealth in housing
Pro-active policy choices
Pro-active policy choices I
Is higher fertility the answer?
Alas, fertility has only minor effects on dependency
Higher fertility initially makes matters worse
Increased migration affects population size more than age structure
Australia as population superpower
Fiscal effects of population policies
Pro-active policy choices II
Remember, participation is at an all time high
Older males around the median
Prime age males doing badly?
Prime aged females rank more highly than males
Working longer?
Poorer societies have the highest participation rates
Policy areas in raising participation
Education raises participation
Policy areas in raising participation
Retirement provisions can have a powerful influence
Retirement income arrangements implicitly tax ‘soldiering on’
Policy areas in raising participation
The expansion in DSP numbers has reduced participation
Getting DSP recipients into work isn’t easy
Policy areas in raising participation
Employees don’t grey much
Part-time work rises after age 55
Impact of raising participation rates
Some workers want more hours
Pro-active policy choices III
A little extra productivity growth adds up
Higher productivity growth provides a capacity to fund the fiscal gap
Further reform is needed to raise national productivity
Carpe Diem: Electorates are ageing too!